Risk Delay Evaluation for Industrial Projects in Iraq Using a Modified TOPSIS Method

Hind  Ali Mousa; Hajir Haitham Labeeb; Hamdan  Yousef hamdan; Ahlam Salam Abdul Karim

doi:10.71229/eg8kv185

Authors

Hind Ali Mousa Department of Construction and Projects, Al Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad, 10071, Iraq.
Hajir Haitham Labeeb Department of Construction and Projects, Al Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad, 10071, Iraq.
Hamdan Yousef Hamdan Department of Construction and Projects, Al Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad, 10071, Iraq.
Ahlam Salam Abdul Karim Department of Construction and Projects, Al Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad, 10071, Iraq.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.71229/eg8kv185

Keywords:

Risk Evaluation, Industrial Projects, Modified TOPSIS

Abstract

Financial, technical, managerial, contractual, logistical, political and environmental risks are common reasons for delays in the implementation of industrial projects in Iraq. In this research, the Modified TOPSIS framework is proposed which is able to evaluate and rank these risks more effectively than the classical TOPSIS method. Twenty delay risk factors were compared to six evaluation criteria in an illustrative case of a cement plant expansion project in southern Iraq. As in other Iraqi studies, the results show that the major risks are the delays in funding, political instability, bureaucratic inefficiency and disruption of the supply chain. The suggested framework has advantages in risk discrimination with uncertain expert judgments and offers a practical tool for prioritizing delay mitigation in industrial projects in Iraq.

References

[1] Ministry of Industry and Minerals, Republic of Iraq, "Ministry functions and industrial development," Embassy of the Republic of Iraq, available: https://mofa.gov.iq/yerevan/?page_id=1413&lang=en.

[2] World Bank, "Iraq Economic Monitor, Spring/Summer 2023: Reemerging Pressures," World Bank Group, Washington, D.C., 2023.

[3] International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), "Republic of Iraq Country Strategy Note 2025-26," IFAD, Rome, 2025.

[4] General Company for Design and Projects Implementation, "About SCDPI," State Company for Design and Projects Implementation, available: https://scdpi.industry.gov.iq/en.

[5] A. A. Al-Awamleh, A. A. Abu-Heff, and N. Ramli, "Causes of delay in public construction projects in Iraq," Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 576–586, 2013.

[6] H. A. A. Al-Rubaye, N. Z. Al-Khafaji, and J. A. Mohammed, "In-depth analysis of critical factors affecting Iraqi construction project performance," Engineering, vol. 22, pp. 351–368, 2024.

[7] A. Alabdulaziz, M. H. Al-Hussein, and S. H. Al-Ghfoili, "Causes of problems in post-disaster emergency re-construction projects—Iraq as a case study," Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, vol. 35, no. 3, p. 04021018, 2021.

[8] A. A. Abu-Heff, A. A. Al-Awamleh, and N. Ramli, "Causes of delay in public construction projects in Iraq," Civil Engineering Journal, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 73–85, 2015.

[9] K. H. Al-Ali, A. N. A. Al-Temimi, and R. J. Mohammed, "Delays factors for construction projects in south of Iraq," Eurasia Proceedings of Engineering and Technology, vol. 35, pp. 103–112, 2024.

[10] R. P. Fujimoto, S. H. Hausman, and A. J. Sobek, "Failure modes and effects analysis: A review," International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 14, no. 9, pp. 6–20, 1997.

[11] S. J. Chang, "Applications of the extended AHP in group decision-making," European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 95, no. 3, pp. 649–662, 1997.

[12] C. L. Hwang and K. Yoon, Multiple Attribute Decision Making: Methods and Applications. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1981.

[13] E. Roszkowska and W. Zielniewicz, "The evaluation of TOPSIS and fuzzy-TOPSIS method for decision making support—Numerical stability analysis," Central European Journal of Operations Research, vol. 28, pp. 483–510, 2020.

[14] The World Bank, "Policies and Public Investments for Growth: A Framework for Analyzing the Role of the State in Transition Economies," World Bank Discussion Paper No. 285, World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1994.

[15] A. E. Watkins and T. J. McKinney, "Reconstruction in Iraq: Challenges and strategies," Harvard International Review, vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 35–39, 2004.

[16] United Nations, "Sustainable Development Goal 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure—Iraq," UN Iraq, available: https://iraq.un.org/en/sdgs/9.

[17] M. D. Hedenquist, "The mineral industry of Iraq in 2020-2021," Mineral Industry Surveys, U.S. Geological Survey, 2022.

[18] European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), "Country Assessment: Iraq, Transition Report 2025-26," EBRD, London, 2025.

[19] R. J. Mohammed and M. A. Jasim, "Study and analysis of the delay problems in Iraqi construction projects," Engineering and Technology Journal, vol. 32, no. 1A, pp. 176–191, 2014.

[20] M. S. Al-Khaled, H. A. Al-Rekabi, and J. D. Abdulqader, "Analyzing delay factors in Iraqi construction projects: An ANP approach," Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, vol. 13, no. 1, 2023.

[21] W. M. Al-Mhdawi, A. Qazi, M. Dacre, U. Ojiako, and A. Aljaloudi, "Examining the key challenges and barriers to construction risk management implementation in pandemics," International Journal of Construction Management, 2022.

[22] A. Alhajri and A. Alshibani, "Critical factors behind construction delay in petrochemical projects in Saudi Arabia," Energies, vol. 11, no. 7, p. 1652, 2018.

[23] A. S. Al-Dweik and H. A. Al-Hussein, "An investigation into factors causing delays in highway construction projects in Iraq," MATEC Web of Conferences, vol. 206, p. 02035, 2018.

[24] Project Management Institute (PMI), A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide), 7th ed. Newton Square, PA: PMI, 2021.

[25] T. P. Baker and D. D. Murphy, "Quantitative risk analysis for megaprojects: A critical review and research agenda," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 35, no. 6, pp. 938–950, 2017.

[26] M. E. Ebojo and I. E. Ononiwu, "A critical review of the FMEA risk priority number: A call for improvement," Journal of Risk and Reliability, vol. 227, no. 5, pp. 395–405, 2013.

[27] R. Levit, A. Lastres, and R. Garza, "Project schedule risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation," Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 129, no. 2, pp. 155–163, 2003.

[28] H. Li, Z. Xie, and X. Zhang, "Application of multiple-criteria decision-making methods for construction safety: A review," Journal of Management in Engineering, vol. 177, no. 3, p. 04021009, 2021.

[29] T. L. Saaty, The Analytic Hierarchy Process. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1980.

[30] S. Opricovic, "Multicriteria optimization of civil engineering systems," Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia, 1998.

[31] D. L. A. Chan, A. H. K. Choi, and T. C. H. Tam, "Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision-making approach to enhance risk assessment for metropolitan construction projects," Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 36, no. 5, pp. 349–361, 2009.

[32] E. B. Baylan, "A novel project risk assessment method development via AHP-TOPSIS hybrid algorithm," Emerging Science Journal, vol. 4, no. 5, pp. 390–410, 2020.

[33] M. Madanchian and H. Taherdoost, "A comprehensive guide to the TOPSIS method for multi-criteria decision making," Sustainable Social Development, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 65–98, 2023.

[34] R. Mahmood, T. T. A. A. G. Hameed, and K. Y. G. Al-Mosawy, "Investigating the causes of delay and cost-overrun in construction projects in northern Iraq," Civil Engineering Journal, vol. 4, no. 12, pp. 2652–2666, 2018.

[35] A. M. G. Al-Hajri, "Causes of delays in Saudi Arabia public sector construction projects," Journal of King Saud University—Engineering Sciences, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 1–12, 2010.

[36] H. Doloi, M. D. Smith, and C. E. Love, "A meta-analysis of critical causes of project delay using Spearman's rank correlation," Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 48, no. 11, pp. 831–843, 2021.

[37] A. Kusi-Sarpong, E. O. W. T. Ngai, and T. C. E. Cheng, "Delay risk assessment models for road projects," Mathematics, vol. 9, no. 3, p. 287, 2021.

[38] G. Jariego, E. Onieva, and J. L. Flores, "A TOPSIS–Risk Matrix and Monte Carlo expert system for risk assessment in engineering projects," Sustainability, vol. 13, no. 20, p. 11277, 2021.

[39] N. Tabor, "Fuzzy TOPSIS in occupational risk management assessment," Management Papers, vol. 15, pp. 207–218, 2024.

[40] A. H. Al-Yami, M. A. Al-Garifi, and S. M. A. Al-Juhani, "Innovative BWM–TOPSIS-based approach to determine the optimal project delivery method for offshore platform projects," PMC, 2025.

[41] S. E. Al-Rousan, "Critical thinking and the role of risk assessment in project management: A conceptual framework," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 39, no. 5, pp. 456–468, 2021.

[42] A. A. Abu-Heff, "Important causes of delay in construction projects in Baghdad city," IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, vol. 933, p. 012057, 2020.

[43] T. A. Al-Dweik, "Forecasting final cost and time rates of highway construction projects in Iraq," Diyala Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 122–136, 2021.

[44] M. A. A. Al-Abidi and S. M. A. Al-Garadi, "Construction project delay risk assessment based on 4M1E approach: Case of Afghanistan," Civil and Environmental Journal, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 89–103, 2021.

[45] A. B. A. Olatunji, A. O. Oke, and A. A. Alaka, "An MCDM approach for evaluating construction-related risks using Grey Fuzzy DEMATEL," Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, vol. 11, no. 5,